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What will our economic future look like?
We don’t know yet how AI will reshape the economy. Will it lead to unprecedented growth? Widespread unemployment? Neither, or something else? How can we tell?
Anthropic’s Economics team built a model of how AI might affect jobs, growth, and unemployment in the US in coming years. Read about possible economic futures and make your own predictions about AI capabilities to see the economy they imply.
We study how AI is reshaping the economy because we’re committed to ensuring that this transition is beneficial for society, including workers. By providing better visibility into our possible economic future, we can take steps to make sure that everyone benefits from it.
While our Economic Index measures how AI is being used across the economy right now, this scenario explorer is about looking ahead. Based on our technical report, Economic Scenarios for Transformative AI (Korinek et al., 2026), this explorer gives you a chance to find out what the economy might look like as AI continues to get more capable.
In scenarios ranging from business as usual to an economy where AI increases growth to about twice the normal rate, unemployment stays within the historical range and wages remain flat or rise depending on the industry. But in scenarios where growth is faster than anything in economic history, there are adverse impacts on wages and job prospects for knowledge workers. In those scenarios, society is far wealthier, so the challenge is making sure that the gains are broadly shared.
As you scroll down, you’ll see an overview of how AI affects the economy. Then, you can plug in your expectations for how capable AI will be, and how extensively it will be used across the economy in the future. The model will show you what the economy in 2030 might look like if your predictions come true—and how your predictions compare to others.
This model represents all the jobs people do in the economy as bundles of tasks. AI can help people do a given task better or faster. It can automate the task. It might not affect the task at all. And it can lead to new tasks.
You can think of any job as a bundle of tasks that someone does. She does rounds to check on a sick patient. She draws blood. She triages incoming patients, charts patients’ vitals, and orders supplies for the ward. That’s just the start of the list.
Each of the tasks listed are based on the US Department of Labor’s O*NET taxonomy, listing the tasks for each occupation.
Tasks leave the bundle (hardly anyone hand-writes paper charts anymore) and new tasks arrive (30 years ago, no one monitored patients remotely). The bundle of tasks isn’t static, and the job changes as tasks change.