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Evaluating space-based methane detection through a one-year blind test
Nature
volume 658, pages 673–681 (2026) Cite this article
Space-based remote sensing allows detection and monitoring of large, concentrated methane sources worldwide1. However, independent evaluation of instruments and algorithms is limited, and new satellites and artificial intelligence techniques have not been tested under controlled, single-blind conditions2. Here we conduct a year-long, single-blind test involving 746 events: 481 methane releases of 9.5–1,183.7 kg h−1 and 265 blank controls. We released metered methane quantities in Arizona, USA, coinciding with overpasses from 12 government, commercial and non-profit satellites. Fifteen analysis teams from nine countries generated more than 2,250 estimates, making this, to our knowledge, the largest controlled test so far and one of the first evaluations of the instruments EMIT, Tanager-1 (Carbon Mapper) and GHOSt. Performance is heterogeneous: ‘built-for-purpose’ instruments designed to target methane demonstrate excellent detection performance (92–100% true positive rate, 0–11% false positive rate) and quantification accuracy (slope 0.83–1.00, 44% mean absolute percentage error). Instruments repurposed for methane sensing perform more variably (detection rates 62–88%, 46% mean absolute percentage error); still, many demonstrate significant skill. Broad land scanners detect poorly at tested rates but have consistent global coverage and historical archives, motivating additional work. Artificial intelligence-based methods show promise, but caution is warranted; 79% of false positives emerge from these methods. Ground-measured cloud cover >20% degraded performance across systems, raising concerns for use in some locations. Our findings show that satellite-based measurements can achieve accurate detection and quantification of methane point sources when the source location is approximately known.
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Ground-metered flow rate files, meteorology data files and cloud cover imagery from the cooperative phase 0 and all blind experimental phases are provided at https://doi.org/10.25740/QH001QT3946 (ref. 51). Spectral imagery from participating satellites was not collected by the experiment team and will not be made available directly through this study. However, these data can be acquired through public platforms or purchased from commercial platforms for many of the tested satellites, as described in Supplementary Information section 2.1. Source data are provided with this paper.
The code to reproduce the figures in this paper is available at https://doi.org/10.25740/QH001QT3946 (ref. 51).
Jacob, D. J. et al. Quantifying methane emissions from the global scale down to point sources using satellite observations of atmospheric methane. Atmos. Chem. Phys. 22, 9617–9646 (2022).
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