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Anthropic says AI can boost U.S. GDP by 32%, up to $44.4 trillion in four years — economics model predicts that displaced employees 'may have to switch to jobs like electrician and nurse'
The tech job market might argue that future has already arrived.
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Last week, Anthropic published its prediction of what the economic impact of AI on the U.S. economy is going to be for the next few years. The company thinks the U.S. can reach a $44.4 trillion GDP or higher by 2030, provided, of course, it conveniently adopts AI at a rapid pace. Having said that, Anthropic admits "the challenge is making sure that the gains are broadly shared."
The interactive post has a simulator where readers can plug in their estimates on key factors and get their own future predictions, within the firm's analysis and perspective. That's definitely interesting to play around with, but perhaps the most relevant piece of information is the lens through which Anthropic views the world.
Anthropic establishes its reasoning by first placing tasks in broad categories and using a nurse's workday as an example. They removed tasks, including those that will disappear naturally as technology progresses, like collecting data on paper or physically visiting the patient to collect basic vitals — neither happens anymore as remote monitoring becomes commonplace. However, some new tasks are added, like keeping an eye on dashboards for the aforementioned AI-powered monitoring.
Then, there are naturally the tasks that a bot can't perform, like bathing a patient. Augmented tasks include those that require a human, but can be made more efficient with AI: helping with triage, planning schedules, and assisting with dashboard data. Some tasks may be fully automated, like keeping supply closets full or scheduling follow-up patient visits. Finally, AI usage can introduce some tasks of its own, like reviewing automated triaging or double-checking dashboard alerts — perhaps even impromptu data recovery.
The company's predictions broadly hinge on how ubiquitous AI usage becomes, and therefore, the number of tasks transitioning into fully or partially automated. Unsurprisingly, Anthropic believes that the more entrenched AI gets, the more value the country creates, though at greater risk — and on an exponential scale, no less
Three models are presented, from "modest" economical impact to "extreme." The modest model establishes a 1.6% GDP rise to $34.1 trillion, an impact Anthropic says is in line with that of new technologies like the internet, and crucially, doesn't imply tectonic shifts to unemployment rates or wages.
For the "substantial impact" scenario, although AI is predicted to be able to do half of "knowledge work," mostly without intervention, adoption remains limited. This scenario foresees twice the normal economic growth, this time +8.3% to $36.3 trillion.
This future marks the inflection point at which Anthropic believes knowledge workers see their wages remain steady instead of growing, though it's not clear if the firm accounts for inflation. Additionally, the firm states that "knowledge workers may see a lot of automation and displacement [...] coders and call service center agents may have to switch to jobs like electrician and nurse", a statement some might argue is already true. In that sense, Anthropic expects other workers to start seeing more cash.