// GAMESPOT — GAMING
All The Records GTA 6 Will Break, We Think
After years of development and perhaps more hype than for any game, GTA 6 is set for release on November 19 for PS5 and Xbox Series X|S. Predicting that it will be an enormous success commercially is perhaps one of the safest bets anyone could make.
But just how big will the launch be? And what records could GTA 6 beat if it delivers?
The last GTA game, 2013's GTA 5, was a huge hit right out of the gate. It brought in $800 million in revenue over its first 24 hours and $1 billion in its first three days. Even a decade later, the game remains a sales juggernaut, eclipsing 230 million copies sold and counting.
Rockstar's latest game, 2018's Red Dead Redemption II, launched with $725 million in revenue over its opening weekend. It's gone on to sell more than 87 million copies, making it one of the top five best-selling games ever.
Outside of Rockstar, Bethesda's 2015 RPG Fallout 4 had a gigantic launch, shipping 12 million copies for launch day alone, generating sales in excess of $750 million.
So to sum up, here are the records that GTA 6 is expected to surpass:
GTA 6 has enormous shoes to fill to match and surpass Rockstar's previous games and Fallout 4. But if Sensor Tower's data that projects 25 million preorders by launch is correct--or even close--then it should have no problem beating GTA 5's initial sales.
One thing working in GTA 6's favor when it comes to comparisons to past games is that GTA 6 has a higher selling price. The base game goes for $80, compared to the $60 that GTA 5 and Red Dead Redemption II launched at years ago.
Of course, $60 in 2013 dollars equates to about $85 today when factoring in inflation. But even inflation-adjusted figures would likely show that GTA 6 has a bigger launch, if it becomes the hit everyone expects it to. And when Take-Two inevitably shares GTA 6 sales data, you can bet the company will present the data is the absolute best possible light, whatever language and specifics it takes to get there.
Officially, neither Rockstar nor parent company Take-Two have shared any numbers at all about preorders or sales projections since preorders opened in June. Take-Two boss Strauss Zelnick said it would not be prudent to disclose preorder figures because they could be misleading. His argument was that, technically speaking, GTA 6 has not sold a single copy yet, as, in theory, every preordered copy of the game could be returned. That's silly, of course; it sounds more like Zelnick is staying true to his mantra of never declaring success before it occurs.
Whatever the case, Zelnick said GTA 6 preorders "vastly" surpassed international expectations, but he did not say what those expectations were or "whether they mean anything" anyway.
Zelnick said sharing real, raw data for GTA 6 preorders could mislead investors, so Take-Two is not going to do so.
“I’ve reminded people that we simply don’t know the demand curve because it’s just never happened before,” Zelnick said. “Given that, we think the raw numbers could potentially be misleading in a direction we wouldn’t feel good about.”
Speaking during Take-Two’s latest earnings call, Zelnick said of GTA 6’s preorder numbers, “No one’s ever seen anything like this before at Take-Two, or in the industry.” He added: “To be clear, we haven’t sold one unit yet. You can cancel a preorder.”
The research firm Sensor Tower has a "GTA 6 Sales Tracker" site that shows estimates for GTA 6 preorders, displaying 6.08 million through October 13, and that apparently includes any returned/refunded copies. The group estimates that this works out to $594 million in revenue so far, with a split of 74% for PlayStation 5 and 26% for Xbox Series X|S.
Sensor Tower's Karl Kontus said in an interview that reorders for GTA 6 could be in the area of 25 million when the game releases, which would amount to “unprecedented preorder performance.”
At 25 million, that would work out to about $2 billion in revenue, which would cover the game's development budget and the