// BBC UK NEWS — CRONACA
What are the government's options for reducing welfare spending?
Chancellor John Healey and Prime Minister Andy Burnham have both spoken of their desire for the benefits bill to come down, but the government has not yet laid out a timetable for any reductions.
Their political opponents have criticised them for a lack of detail on welfare reform in Wednesday's Budget, accusing the government of delaying difficult decisions over cuts.
Official forecasts released alongside the Budget indicate welfare spending is going to increase by £79bn in cash terms over the next few years.
BBC Verify has taken a look at the numbers behind this thorny political issue and some of the difficult options the government have to bring down welfare costs.
The official forecaster, the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), estimates in its latest forecasts that the cost of the welfare system will rise, external from £353bn this year to £431bn in 2032.
The OBR's figures include spending on pensioners, which accounts for just under half of the total. The majority of this cost is on the state pension.
However, if we look at the size of welfare spending relative to the size of the overall economy the OBR's projections are less dramatic, increasing from 11.1% today to 11.3% of GDP in 2032.
Total welfare spending would also remain below the peak of around 12% of GDP in 2013 following the global financial crisis, leading some economists and researchers to question the idea that welfare spending is out of control., external
But there are some welfare costs that are rising rapidly.
Spending on health and disability related benefits, in particular Personal Independence Payments (PIP), is up sharply since the Covid-19 pandemic.